Mariam Tchanturia, Giorgi Gigineishvili, Tamta Sopromadze and Shalva Mkhatrishvili
This policy paper aims to elucidate the concepts and importance of the neutral rate. For monetary policymakers, the neutral rate serves as a crucial benchmark for assessing monetary policy stance and plays a significant role in policy rules that guide decision-making. However, its unobservable nature poses challenges that often lead to vigorous debates regarding its interpretation. Views and methodologies concerning the neutral rate can vary significantly. This paper specifically focuses on the Real Uncovered Interest Rate parity (UIP) within the semi-structural New Keynesian Georgian Economy Model (GEMO), which we utilize for forecasting and policy analysis. We draw a clear distinction between short- and long-run neutral rates in the context of Georgia, emphasizing how differing short- and long-term inflation expectations shape these rates. For the long-run real rate, we employ steady-state calibrated values, while our analysis of the short-term neutral real rate is guided by trend estimates. Ultimately, this paper seeks to deepen the understanding of the dynamics of Georgia’s neutral rate.